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December 6, 2003

Announcing the 2004 Presidential Prediction Poll

The race is beginning to warm up, though most people aren't paying much attention yet. At this early stage it's not easy to predict how it all will turn out. That's what makes it interesting. I've got my own prediction, and it's based on my reading of the news and a fair bit of wistful wishful thinking. Here it is:

Bush's numbers continue to drift downward as Iraq stays messy despite heroic efforts to clean it up. A scandal breaks into the headlines which forces Cheney to bow out for a second term, ostensibly for health reasons. Bush replaces him on the ticket with Condoleeza Rice, hoping to gain minority and female votes with a twofer. Meanwhile, Dean continues to be unstoppable, turns down the rage a bit and becomes attractive to a growing number of people. He wins the nomination after a sputtering attempt to bring Hillary in as an alternative and names Wesley Clark as his veep. After the most expensive and nastiest election in US History, the Dean/Clark ticket wins.

That's my guess, and if it scares you take comfort in the fact that I've never once been right about these things.

But you can play, too. I've just put up the
2004 Presidential Prediction Poll and invite your participation. Mull it over and make a guess. You have until January 31 and then I'll freeze what's there and we'll wait and see who came closest to reality. The winner will be saluted here next November. (Sorry, there's no prize other than that intangible praise and tiny fame.) Jump in and give it a try!

Postscript: Results are coming in already. You can see them here.